The trend of the hottest rubber market is difficul

2022-07-24
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The trend of the rubber market could not be changed by the rainfall in Thailand

the January contract of Shanghai natural rubber futures rose 0.77% in early trading on January 17. The market expected a fundamental turnaround in European debt, which boosted commodity prices. The news that rainfall in Thailand hindered the supply of raw materials also stimulated the rise of rubber prices. But demand continues to wane, with signs that buyers are becoming more cautious rather than optimistic. The rebound in the rubber market is difficult to sustain

On the 14th, the November crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile futures exchange closed up $2.57, or 3.05%, at $86.80 a barrel. U.S. retail sales in September increased by 1.1% over the previous month, stronger than expected. Together with the data of recent public and even loss sales, it shows that the U.S. economy is recovering. The view that European leaders are taking stronger measures to solve the region's debt problems pushed the euro higher, and the euro/dollar is bound to record its best weekly performance in nine months. Driven by optimism, the US stock market closed higher, further boosting crude oil prices. China's data showed that consumer inflation fell to 6.1% in September, which also contributed to the moderate relaxation of China's policies. The rise of crude oil will increase the cost of synthetic rubber, which is beneficial to the natural rubber market

weather conditions: natural rubber production area in Thailand, rainy in the north and central Thailand, cloudy in the South; In Malaysia, it rains in the south of the Malay Peninsula and in the north of Kalimantan island; In Indonesia, it is cloudy in the north of Sumatra island equator, cloudy in the south of Sumatra island equator, and rainy in the south of Kalimantan island; China's production area, Hainan cloudy, Yunnan showers. The recent weather in Thailand has a certain impact on the rubber cutting production and transportation

in the Asian spot market, the price fell the previous trading day. Traders said that the transaction slowed down before the weekend. Macroeconomic concerns overshadowed Thai rubber suppliers. The addition of second nano materials (such as carbon nanotubes or silicon carbide) and graphene at the same time could have a significant impact on performance. The impact should be worried. The market presents uncertainty, accompanied by the national reform and opening-up policy. An industry event in Kuala Lumpur also caused many investors to leave the market. RSS3 of Thai No. 3 cigarette adhesive shipped in November/December is quoted at US cents per kilogram. On the 17th, the official FOB quotation of Malaysia standard adhesive SMR20 in November rose sharply in the morning

in other aspects, the spot price of butadiene in the Asian market will fall further in October. The producers of synthetic rubber and ABS, the main downstream applications of butadiene in the region, are cutting production. Butadiene suppliers will be forced to cut prices and sell off excess goods. By the end of September, the price had dropped to US $2700-2800 CFR Northeast Asia. A trader predicted that the spot price of butadiene in Asia would drop to about US $2000 by the end of October. The weakness of synthetic rubber and butadiene raw materials is unfavorable to the natural rubber market

on the whole, there is no major turnaround in the commodity market. The recent price rise is due to the plan to rescue the crisis to be launched by Germany and France. The euro zone countries have adopted the plan to expand the rescue fund, which may be the basis for Germany and France to launch the plan, but it is not easy to change the trend of the European debt crisis. Greece has been slow to get the loan, although the rescue fund is fully large enough to meet its needs. The market's fear of economic recession has not changed, and no major economy has yet come up with practical stimulus measures. The external situation still poses pressure on the rubber market. The recent rainfall in Thailand and the news of production reduction caused by strong typhoon in Hainan, China, stimulated the rebound of the rubber market. Gains were also supported by Thailand's announcement to cut production by 120000 tons. The problem is that demand continues to decline, rather than following short-term optimism. Inventory levels in China and Japan have recovered to a higher level, while production has reached the highest level in the whole year. It seems that there are no sufficient factors such as high-strength steel, aluminum magnesium alloy, engineering plastics and composite materials to support the long-term rebound

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