The trend of the hottest international pricing ben

2022-08-01
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The trend of international pricing benchmark oil deviated from that of domestic product oil, and the pressure on domestic product oil increased. On February 11, the price of Brent crude oil in London reached 101 The price of West Texas light crude oil (WT I) closed at $85.58 per barrel at a discount of 15% to Brent crude oil 85 US dollars, hitting a record level of 16.24 US dollars during the session. In fact, this is just a microcosm of the different trends of the two major pricing benchmark oils in the international oil market in the past two months. Brent continued to rise and WTI fluctuated in the middle and down. Analysts pointed out that this price difference may show a trend of gradual expansion in the future

the economic information daily has paid attention to the unconventional changes of the two major futures indexes in the international oil market, interviewed relevant insiders and oil traders, and found that behind this price difference, to some extent, it reflects the changes in the cost of imported crude oil between China and the United States. After the holiday, the extremely strong domestic refined oil increase may face additional pressure

trend: Brent WTI price difference relationship may be completely reversed

Brent crude oil (Brent) and West Texas light crude oil (WTI) are the two most important benchmark crude oils in the European and North American oil markets respectively, and the price trends of the two major oil products in history are basically the same. As the quality of WT I crude oil is slightly better than that of B rent, the price of WTI crude oil is generally $higher than that of Brent crude oil for a long time in the past. However, since 2007, the price of Brent has been higher than that of WTI, and the duration has been continuously extended. From February to May 2007, the price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea was $6 higher than that of WT I crude oil; In 2009, Brent crude oil in the North Sea was once $10 higher than WTI. Since April, 2010, the upside down pattern has reappeared and set a record high in 2011

in January, 2011, after the WTI contract failed to hit 94 dollars/barrel twice in March, it turned downward on January 19 and reached a minimum of 88 on January 20 USD 9/barrel. On January 27, the March WTI contract closed at $85.64/barrel, down $4.81, or 5, from the closing price of $90.45 on December 30, 2010 6%。 Different from the trend of WT I, Brent's price not only did not fall, but also rose sharply. In January, 2011, the contract price of Brent crude oil surged in March, always above $93/barrel. Especially at the end of the month, the closing price once stood at $98/barrel, and reached $98.94/barrel on January 27. Compared with the closing price of $92.57/barrel on December 30, 2010, it rose by $16.37, or 17.7%. On February 11, Brent futures price was $15.85 higher than WTI futures price, the highest premium in history. Statistics show that before 2011, the widest premium of Brent crude oil futures to West Texas crude oil futures was $10.67 per barrel on february12,2009

many insiders told the economic information daily that the reversal of the price difference between the two benchmark oil products is the response of deep-seated factors such as the supply and demand status of crude oil in the two trading markets, the delivery method and the composition of traders

a trader of CNPC group, which specializes in international oil trading, told the economic information daily that the price trend of WT I largely reflects the supply and demand of the US market. "This is mainly related to the delivery methods of the two exchanges. The B rent crude oil of the Intercontinental Exchange (ice) is delivered in cash without physical delivery, which is more attractive to investment funds, while the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) WTI adopts physical delivery. Although delivery can be replaced by other crude oil, due to the relatively closed delivery warehouse and transportation problems, WT I has increasingly become a domestic contract in the United States, and the price change is to a large extent a reflection of the supply and demand status of the U.S. market. "

Zhou Dadi, deputy director of the national energy expert advisory committee and researcher of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with the economic information daily that Brent is now more than $10 higher than WTI per barrel, which is a rare situation in history. Generally speaking, due to the difference in quality, WTI is higher than Brent USD per barrel in most of the time. The reversal of the relationship between the two prices more reflects the decline of U.S. demand for oil. In recent years, due to the financial crisis, the U.S. economy has been affected, and the oil consumption has decreased. In particular, due to the breakthrough in shale gas development technology in the United States, the natural gas production has increased significantly, and the substitution effect of natural gas on oil has begun to manifest. As a result, the growth of crude oil supply in the United States has exceeded the growth of consumption, thus reversing the price difference between the two. Although the two oil products are pricing benchmarks, which reflect not only their own prices, due to the substitution of crude oil varieties, such as round steel, square steel and 6-angle steel with a limited cross-section size of less than or equal to 40mm under the conditions of oil transportation and processing equipment, the circulation between markets may take a certain time. However, it is impossible to judge that the price difference between the two will be reversed for a long time

the traders of CNPC group, which specializes in international oil trading, also said that the reversal of the price difference between WT I and Brent was directly related to the opening of the first phase of the "keystone" oil pipeline from Canada to the United States in July 2010. The pipeline significantly improved the supply of crude oil in the United States, resulting in an increase in crude oil inventories in the United States. In addition, after the financial crisis, the United States strengthened the supervision of the futures market, and some investment funds have shifted from WTI to Brent

the trader also believed that from the current development trend, the time for B rent to be higher than WT I price is continuously extending, the range of price difference is also relaxing, and the possibility of price inversion becoming normal is increasing

Shan Weiguo, director of the market Institute of China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, told the economic information daily that WTI has been lower than Brent for most of the time since 2007, which has become the norm. This is closely related to the relatively closed oil market in the United States and the rapid growth of CBM and shale gas production in the United States. In addition, although many oil products are linked to Brent, their own output is gradually declining, and the reduction of trade volume also makes them more speculative, and the trend is stronger than WTI

absence: China's crude oil import is subject to others without pricing power

the import costs vary greatly due to different import pricing methods. In this regard, the natural gas market is a very typical example

in terms of natural gas trade, the price of natural gas exported from Russia and the Middle East to Europe and China is much higher than that imported from Canada and other places in the United States. The main reason is that their pricing benchmarks are inconsistent

the United States imports a large amount of natural gas every year. The price of imported natural gas mainly refers to the natural gas futures price of the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is essentially determined by the U.S. capital. The pricing mechanism of Russian natural gas exported to Europe and China in the next 10 (2) years, the Middle East, Africa and other countries is determined by the natural gas exporting countries, and the pricing model is linked to the crude oil price

in recent years, the price of crude oil has been rising continuously. The price of natural gas exported from Russia to Europe and China has gone up, but the price of natural gas futures in New York has fallen all the way. At the end of October 2010, the price of natural gas futures in New York once fell below $4.0 per million BTU, down 60% from the highest price in 2008 and more than 40% from October 2009, the lowest level in recent years. In January, 2011, the price of natural gas futures in the United States still fluctuated at $4.40, only about 30% of the price of crude oil with constant calorific value. The natural gas exported from Russia, the Middle East and Africa to China and Europe is about 50%-60% of the price of crude oil with equal calorific value, resulting in the price of natural gas exported from Russia to China and Europe being close to twice the import price of the United States

analysts pointed out that from the history of China's natural gas imports, the situation that the price of China's imported crude oil is higher than that of the United States may only be the beginning

the United States and China are the world's first and second largest net oil importers and consumers respectively. Both of them import a large amount of oil, and both of them are highly dependent on foreign crude oil. In the eyes of domestic consumers, it has become a habit to compare the prices of gasoline and diesel between China and the United States. However, due to the great difference between China and the United States in the voice and pricing power in the oil field, the import costs are obviously different. The difference in the price formation mechanism of imported original foreign enterprises and the difference in benchmark oil is a direct reflection

the crude oil imported from the United States is priced according to the crude oil varieties in the United States market, while the crude oil imported from China is priced according to the crude oil varieties and prices of the import source countries. The price and pricing mechanism are in the hands of others. Even if Brent was lower than WTI crude oil price in the past, the premium of China's crude oil import requires frequent opening and closing of the oil inlet valve is also higher than that of the United States. If the premium of Brent crude oil to WTI does not change, the cost of China's imported crude oil will be higher than that of the United States. If this is the case, there will be a situation that the increase of WT I crude oil is limited, but the cost of domestic imported crude oil is rising

impact: the increase in the oil price of finished products in China has added additional pressure

although there is a certain difference between the contract price of physical trade and the futures price, the reversal and expansion of the futures price difference between the two will still have a profound impact on the physical trade, especially on the countries and regions importing the above-mentioned oil products, as well as the physical trade of other oil products using the two major oil products as the pricing benchmark oil, The impact on China's crude oil import is far-reaching. Analysts pointed out that the recent negative price spread will increase the price difference between China and the United States

according to the current international oil price system, most crude oil exported to the United States is priced with WT I crude oil as the benchmark oil, and some are priced by index. The crude oil exported to China from Africa, Russia and Europe is priced with Brent as the benchmark oil; Crude oil exported from the Middle East and other places to China is priced based on Oman crude oil. Therefore, the higher Brent crude oil price will directly increase the cost of China's imported crude oil, while the change of WTI crude oil price will have a limited impact on China's crude oil import, but a greater impact on the import of the United States

at present, China's crude oil imported from Africa, Russia, the Mediterranean Sea, the North Sea and other countries and regions are priced with B rent crude oil as the benchmark oil, accounting for about 45% - 50% of China's imported crude oil, while the import of WTI as the pricing benchmark oil accounts for a relatively small proportion. If the price of Brent crude oil is higher than that of WT I crude oil for a long time, and the price difference widens, the cost of imported crude oil from China will be significantly higher than that from the United States. This upside down spread may increase additional pressure on domestic refined oil prices

zhangkuiwan, general manager of Finance and economics of jinkaixun petrochemical, told the economic information daily that at present, Brent crude oil is significantly stronger than WTI, which is largely related to the situation in the Middle East. The tension in the Middle East has a greater impact on Brent crude oil than on WTI, resulting in price inversion and widening. This price relationship is unfavorable to China's crude oil imports

"The price of crude oil exported from Europe, the Middle East and Africa to Asia is higher than that of the United States. The inversion of the prices of the two futures markets will make the cost of China's imported crude oil further higher than that of the United States, which will also make it more difficult to adjust the price of domestic refined oil. Because ordinary consumers do not understand the pricing system of crude oil trade, they will not compare the price of crude oil, but only the price of refined oil. For example, according to our estimation, from December 22, 2010 From the domestic price adjustment date of February 8, 2011 to February 8, 2011, the three places (Dubai, Brent and Xinta, which are the tracking targets of domestic refined oil products according to market speculation) originally

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